About that bacon shortage

Yeah, not happening. Sure, the initial reports sounded very official, based on government estimates and whatnot, and things were looking grim:

U.S. bacon reserves have hit a 50 year low. The non-profit Ohio Pork Council said that demand for frozen pork belly, often made into bacon, has far outpaced supply, USA Today reports. “Today’s pig farmers are setting historic records by producing more pigs than ever. Yet our reserves are still depleting,” said Rich Deaton, the group's president.
With low reserve levels, prices have increased; the cost of pork belly rose by 20% in January, according to the council. Officials said that increased foreign demand might also be responsible, however, as hog farmers export around 26% of their total product according to the group.

Many local news sources dutifully reported the 20% rise in pork belly, implying it was a rise in the cost of bacon:

In December, the inventory was at 17.8 million pounds. That sounds like a lot, but it’s the lowest it’s been since 1957, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
It doesn’t take a business degree to deduct that when demand outweighs supply, prices surge. Those prices increased 20 percent in January.

 As someone who buys a lot of bacon, I knew that prices are quite low right now and have shown no upward trend. Sure enough, my sense of the bacon market was correct. It pains me that the New York Times confirmed my believe, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then:

But the truth is this: The frozen reserves are just that — reserves. There will be no rationing at breakfast, or for your burgers (or B.L.T.s, or quiche, or roasted bacon-wrapped rabbit, or apples and ice cream. Not even for your bacon footballs this weekend.)
. . .
. . . . bacon lovers have nothing to fear. According to Mr. Meyer, the United States produces almost 75 million pounds of pork belly every week. “We’re going to slaughter about 3 percent more pigs this year than we did last year — a record number,” he said. “Bacon production will be higher than it’s ever been."

Of course, I am glad to hear that bacon will be plentiful. On the other hand, as a buyer of bacon and observer of prices (I do the grocery shopping in this family) I already knew that there were no price signals of a coming shortage.  If only government would pay more attention to market price signals and ignore the urge to intervene. Sigh. A post for another day.

 

I'm a big believer in markets, but this just sucks

Right now,the markets are working against temps. The amount of work available is being decreased  on two fronts. First, firms are using predictive coding -- computer-determined decisions on responsiveness -- which has virtually eliminated first-review document work. We won't even talk about sending the temp jobs to India, the Philippines, Ohio and North Carolina. Leaving outsourcing out of it, the other primary downward pressure on labor demand is the client insistence on the 40-hour week -- more bodies, no overtime. Send those jobs to a cheaper wage location, so much the better. Cheaper for the client, but impossible for most temps to make a living. Of course, that is not why these jobs exist. They exist to get the job done for the client. Their interest in our ability to make a living is nonexistent. This is something liberals don't understand about employers. They do not exist to create jobs. They exist to make money. If they don't make money, they don't exist. The only true minimum wage is zero.

Want proof? I just got this email from an agency:

I am staffing a new project that is expected to start on Monday April 20th. The project is estimated to last for at least a couple months. It requires that you are actively barred anywhere in a US jurisdiction. It is $26/hr and there is some possibility for OT, but at this time it is 40 hours a week. If you are interested and available for this project, please email me your resume as soon as you can. Thank you!

First of all, why should someone be willing to wait two weeks for a project to start? Further, that is at least $4 per hour below market rate. Why can they do this? Too many temps chasing too few jobs. I like to think of myself as one of the better temps out there. Over the last 10 days or so, I have whiffed on at least three projects -- not chosen. I am pending on three more, but we'll see. Further, another guy I know who was on the same project I was also has not yet found work, and this is a dude I have always envied as someone who never has down time. The dude is always working, and usually on overtime projects. But not right now.  Times are hard.

Why? Market forces. Live by the sword, die by the sword, right?