Not clear how ready for action China's fifth-generation fighter is

Apparently, China's J-20, which it claims is a fifth-generation, stealth fighter, is not exactly fully operational. Mind you, this isn't that unusual for advanced aircraft -- operational does not mean fully operational. But it is interesting in that China hasn't hedged its language on how ready the J-20 is:

It is unclear exactly how close the J-20 is to being truly operational. An initial operational capability is often a long way off from a fully operational capability. In the case of the fifth-generation Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor air superiority fighter, the aircraft still had many teething issues when the U.S. Air Force declared it operational in 2005. Meanwhile, the tri-service fifth-generation Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, both the United States Air Force and Marine Corps declared their versions of the stealthy single-engine jet to be operational with a very basic interim capability. Only the U.S. Navy is holding out for a full warfighting capability before declaring their version of the F-35 operational. Thus, only time will tell just how operational the J-20 really is.

This isn't really all that unusual, obviously. Still, interesting given the absolutist language from China about how ready the J-20 is. Still, it is a good-look aircraft:

Looks like Russia's first fifth-generation fighter is a bust

We've talked about the PAK-50 and Russia's problems with their effort at a fifth-generation fighter here and here, and maybe more, but it is becoming more and more apparent that the PAK-50, now apparently known as the Sukhoi Su-57, is a steaming heap of shit, at least as fifth-generation fighters go. (Spoiler alert: The United States remains the only country that actually has developed a fifth-generation fighter.) That singular status seems to remain unchallenged by the newly named Su-57:

On August 11, Russia named its new stealth fighter the Su-57, but despite having a name, a finalized design, and a tentative date for its delivery, it already looks like a huge disappointment.
Russia first flew the Su-57 in 2010, demonstrating that it would enter the race towards fifth-generation aircraft after the US revolutionized aerial combat with the F-22, and later the F-35.
But in the years since, the Su-57 has failed to present a seriously viable future for Russian military aviation. Russia already fields some of the most maneuverable planes on earth. It has serious firepower in terms of missiles and bombs, and long-distance bombers and fighters. But what Russia doesn't have is a stealth jet of any kind.

Building a stealth jet is not easy. The sophisticated electronics involved in a fifth-generation fighter are beyond the capabilities of any nation besides the U.S., unless, of course, another nation is able to steal the technology. Anyone who has seen first-line U.S. fighters through the years side-by-side with Soviet fighters knows that this happens a lot. Yes, the MiG-15 was a clone of the F-86, both of them Korean War-era planes. Coincidence? I think not. The Tu-160 looks just like a U.S. B-1 bomber, the Su-27 bears an uncanny resemblence to the F-15. The list goes on. The Soviets routinely stole  the basic design plans for our front-line aircraft.

What they were unable to steal, or at least unable to duplicate, was the complex avionics that made all of those aircraft dramatically superior to the clones the Soviets put in the air.

That is the problem that faces Russia today. They can't develop a fighter that actually can compete with the fighters we are seeking to retire, much less the aircraft that we are bringing on line. Nor can China, which still has to buy aircraft engines from Russia because the ones they build on their own suck.

On a qualitative level, no one can compete with U.S. air power. However, the Chinese apparently are willing to concede a qualitative edge and attempt to overcome that with a quantitative advantage. If our fighters can impose a 10-to-1 kill advantage, then China will simply make sure that their fighters outnumber ours by 20-to-1. Simple math: they win. Therein lies the problem of relying on superior technology. You still need numbers.

We don't have them. Someone at the Pentagon needs to wake up. When the Huns sacked Rome, they weren't relying on technology.

China has a new stealth fighter plane -- or does it?

I've been collecting stories about China's new J-20 "stealth" fighter for a little while now. I haven't gone much into it, mostly because I have been really busy with work for months now. I have chosen to sacrifice sleep in favor of blogging, though, so I guess you get the benefit of that sacrifice. At least if you care about the J-20. Which you might not. After all, this isn't a military blog. Unless I say it is, of course. Dissatisfied customers will receive a full refund, and should refer to the title of the blog.

The jet made its first official appearance at the end of October, as Reuters reports (via Yahoo):

ZHUHAI, China (Reuters) - China showed its Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter in public for the first time on Tuesday, opening the country's biggest meeting of aircraft makers and buyers with a show of its military clout.
Airshow China, in the southern city of Zhuhai, offers Beijing an opportunity to demonstrate its ambitions in civil aerospace and to underline its growing capability in defense. China is set to overtake the U.S. as the world's top aviation market in the next decade.
Two J-20 jets, Zhuhai's headline act, swept over dignitaries, hundreds of spectators and industry executives gathered at the show's opening ceremony in a flypast that barely exceeded a minute, generating a deafening roar that was met with gasps and applause and set off car alarms in a parking lot.
Experts say China has been refining designs for the J-20, first glimpsed by planespotters in 2010, in the hope of narrowing a military technology gap with the United States. President Xi Jinping has pushed to toughen the armed forces as China takes a more assertive stance in Asia, particularly in the South China and East China seas.

But what did China really show off? Is the J-20 a legit fifth-generation fighter on a par with the F-22 and F-35? Sure, it looks good:

But despite stealing many design elements from the F-22, it seems unlikely that the J-20 can even begin to compare. Yes, there are many common design elements with the F-22:

Apparently, the brief display of the J-20 did not impress aviation experts:

But analysts said the brief and relatively cautious J-20 routine - the pilots did not open weapon bay doors, or perform low-speed passes - answered few questions.
"I think we learned very little. We learned it is very loud. But we can't tell what type of engine it has, or very much about the mobility," said Greg Waldron, Asia Managing Editor of FlightGlobal. "Most importantly, we didn't learn much about its radar cross-section."
A key question whether the new Chinese fighter can match the radar-evading properties of the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor air-to-air combat jet, or the latest strike jet in the U.S. arsenal, Lockheed's F-35. The F-22, developed for the U.S. Air Force, is the J-20's closest lookalike.

Superficial appearances, while indicating espionage, do not translate into performance. It would appear that the J-20 falls short on several fronts:

The jet’s debut generated ripples of panic across the globe in the wake of its boisterous exhaust. Can this plane best the best of Western stealth tech, the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Joint Strike Fighters?

Nope. The J-20 is no F-22, and nowhere does it fall shorter than with its most critical trait: dodging detection. “At best, it’s probably stealthy only from the front,” says aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia, of the Teal Group. “Whereas all-aspect stealth like that in the F-22 and F-35 minimizes the radar signature from all directions.”

The fact is, the J-20 just isn't stealthy. The use of the canards -- the little winglets at the forward edge of the fuselage -- tell you that. Those dramatically enhance radar profile. Further, they indicate that the aircraft needs stabilization to make it airworthy. Canards can enhance maneuverability, but they also can compensate for inherent instability. It is not clear which function the J-20's canards serve, but either way, they reduce the aircraft's stealthiness.

The Wired article notes that the J-20 might not meet the standards of the F-22 or F-35:

The J-20 technically counts as a fifth-generation fighter—it’s got the same sort of tech and capability of its contemporaries—but it lacks the breadth of know-how and technological innovation you see in American jets.

On the other hand, the Chinese philosophy always has been to simply build more. If the F-22 has a 10-1 advantage over Chinese fighters, make sure that when the shooting starts, the Chinese have a 20-to-1 numerical advantage. High tech isn't really their forte -- numbers are.  Ultimately, it might not matter much of the F-22 and F-35 are better than their Chinese counterparts as long as the Chinese build enough planes. Not a comforting thought.

Apparently India can't decide whether to shit or get off the pot when it comes to aircraft purchases

India has a long history of buying Russian (or Soviet) aircraft. In recent years, though, they have been all over the map. India's military has Russian (or Soviet), French, American, British, Brazilian, Indian, Canadian and Swiss aircraft, ranging from trainers to airborne tankers to transports to fighters.

In recent years, the country has been looking for bids for its  Medium Multi-role Combat Aircraft, and effort to upgrade (through replacement) some of India's aging aircraft, primarily MiG-21s. That effort has been abandoned, but India has been negotiating with France to buy 36 Rafale fighters. Those talks apparently are not going well:

The Indian air force will not be receiving new Rafale fighter jets anytime soon. Despite a unique intergovernmental agreement signed by India and France in January committing to conclude a deal for 36 fully fitted Rafale jets, negotiations remain stuck on the value of the order. This is a stunning situation, bordering on the absurd. Price was precisely what bedeviled the possibility of an agreement for 126 fighters in India’s notoriously long but finally aborted Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (M-MRCA) contest.

It would appear that India and France agreed that India would buy 36 of France's fifth-generation Rafale fighters (if you believe France -- they likely are no better than 4.5-generation, like the FA-18 Super Hornet) but failed to agree on the price. India now wants to pay a lot less than France wants to charge. It might be a commentary on how much India wants to spend on its military, but it also might be a commentary on how close other countries are to having truly fifth-generation fighters for sale. It looks a lot like the U.S. might be the only nation currently offering such a product, which bodes well for the future of the F-35. We'll see.

Fifth-generation fighters aren't as easy as they sound

It would appear that Russia is having as much trouble with its fifth-generation fighter aircraft as the U.S. is, given recent reports. Granted, America's latest fifth-generation effort, the F-35, has its problems, as we have mention here, here, and here,  But Russia is approaching the effort from a different starting point. The F-35 has problems because it is intended to fill all roles for all services, which is an unrealistic goal for an aircraft. Not sure why anyone would think that is a good idea, but that is the basis of the F-35 program, so the aircraft is destined for mediocrity at any given role, even if it is adequate at all roles.

The problem for Russia's fifth-generation fighter is different, but equally predictable:

Reporting from the Singapore Airshow 2016, IHS Jane's reports that "Russian industry has consistently referred to the Sukhoi T-50 PAK FA as a fifth-generation aircraft, but a careful look at the program reveals that this is an 'in name only' designation."
This is largely because of a lack of evolutionary technology aboard the plane compared with previous jets that Russia and the US have designed. Indeed, the PAK FA's engines are the same as those aboard Russia's 4++ generation (a bridging generation between fourth- and fifth-generation aircraft) Su-35. Additionally, the PAK FA and the Su-35 share many of the same onboard systems.

 Russia simply doesn't have the technology to field a truly fifth-generation fighter. We might field a fifth-generation fighter, such as the F-35, that can't do everything it is intended to do better than any other fighter in the world, but the F-35 likely will perform any of its individual roles better than any fighter any other nation might be able to put into the air.

For instance, while the F-35C might or might not be the best-ever vertical-takeoff fighter -- I suspect the AV-8B Harrier was better -- it likely is better than anything any of our enemies can put in the field, and by enemies I mean Russia and China, the only potential enemies we have who can field more than armed crop-dusters. Likewise, the F-35 might not be better at ground-support than the A-10 -- an excellent reason to keep the A-10, by the way -- or at air-superiority than the F-15 -- also an excellent reason to keep the F-15 -- but I suspect it will be better at both roles than any aircraft any one else has.

My doubts creep in with respect to ground-support, as the A-10 is magnificent in that role, but I suspect the F-35 is adequate. I don't think that is the standard, of course, but we seem to have settled for that. I would prefer role-specific aircraft that are the best at what they do, but that appears to not be the direction the US is heading in. Pity.

Fortunately, our opponents appear to suck at creating opposing aircraft to take the sky against us. For instance, their stealth aircraft may be something less than that:

The question of stealth is one of the largest factors influencing perceptions of the PAK FA. In 2010 and 2011, two estimates from individuals close to the program estimated that the plane's radar cross section would be 0.3 to 0.5 square meters, RealClearDefense notes.
In comparison, the US Air Force has hinted that the radar cross section of the F-22 is as small as 0.0001 square meters. The F-35's RCS is larger, but it is still minuscule when compared with that of the PAK FA, as it has an RCS of roughly 0.001 square meters.

I guess we'll see how this all plays out. Frankly, I hope we don't, since that would mean our aircraft meet in combat, which can only turn out badly in a strategic sense. To the extent that we have an advantage over Russia, I can only assume we have at least that large of an advantage over China, which usually buys aircraft from Russia and them copies them, either under license or otherwise. For the moment, I believe we still hold an edge technologically. Continuing to squander that edge on stupid shit like do-everything aircraft, though, might not be the way to go. Just because the aircraft is OK at everything doesn't mean we should use it for everything. Our enemies won't be behind us forever.

Need more proof that Russia's new stealth fighter sucks? Got it right here

The vaunted Sukhoi T-50 PAK FA fifth-generation stealth fighter is a steaming heap that can't compete with U.S. fifth-generations fighters, despite what critics might say about the F-35, such as here and here.. If you doubt this, ask India, which is seriously upset that it is paying billions for a piece of shit. And if you don't believe India, ask Russia, which apparently is already trying to develop a new fifth-generation fighter to replace the sack of crap that it hasn't even deployed yet:

Turns out, the dreaded Sukhoi T-50 PAK FA is not the only fifth-generation fighter jet under development by Russia. The PAK FA is expected to enter services in 2017. But the Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG is developing yet another cutting-edge lightweight fifth generation fight jet. The new lightweight fighter jet will be based on Mikoyan Project 1.44 (NATO reporting name: Flatpack), reports Sputnik News.

The problem is, even this new project relies on technology developed nearly two decades ago:

The Mikoyan Project 1.44 was meant to develop an alternative to the Advanced Tactical Fighter (ATF) project of the United States that led to the development of Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. The aircraft made its first flight in 2000. It boasted of stealth technology, advanced avionics, super-cruise, and super-maneuverability. However, Russia shut down the project over a decade ago.

Ultimately, the short-coming here is that Russia lacks the funding to develop something  truly new, and so it is recycling old ideas and pretending they are new, competitive aircraft that are superior to what the U.S. is fielding.. It simply isn't true. The so-called new fighter will be no such thing:

On Tuesday, MiG CEO Sergei Korotkov said that the company will use the experience gained from the Project 1.44 to develop the new fifth-generation fighter jet. He added that the new plane will also use some of the technology developed for MiG-35 (Fulcrum-F) air superiority fighter. The new fifth-generation jet is supposed to replace the ageing MiG-29, which was first introduced in 1983.

Project 1.44 and the MiG-35 both are simply upgrades of the MiG-29. Just as upgrades have improved the F-16 and F-15 for the U.S., these upgrades likely will improve the MiG-29, but it still will be just an improved MiG-29. That's a fine fighter for its day, but both the F-16 and the F-15 could kick its ass when it was new, and they can kick its ass now. So can the F-22 and F-35, both of which are true fifth-generation fighters. It would appear that what Russia is developing now is simply a fourth-generation-plus fighter, much like the FA-18 upgrades that we call the Super Hornet. Great plane, but not fifth-generation.

The fact that Russia already is trying to develop a new fifth-generation fighter before its first one is even deployed says a lot. Frankly, I don't think either one will prove to be a true fifth-generation fighter. It's not easy to create one on paper. It's even harder to create one in the real world. It doesn't sound like Russia has managed to do that so far.